All Change
2015 is likely to be marked by foundational shifts.
A flurry of transactions between firms started this at the end of 2014, with big changes occurring from deals such as DST Global Solutions' acquisition by SS&C Technologies, not to mention new owners for IPC with a multi-billion-dollar price tag, and the acquisition of Tbricks by the parent firm of Orc Group. You might think that, following the excess of the New Year, it would calm down a bit. But acquisitions are continuing to close, deals are still being struck and mergers are being completed.
Indeed, if merger and acquisition activity in the vendor space was to be taken as a bellwether, it might be easy to forget that tough time that many have had over the past few years.
It's a little less rosy on the bank side, of course. Standard Chartered has been the latest to shutter one of its trading divisions, this time in cash equities, after the brutal cuts in fixed income and commodities at the end of 2014 among other sell-side firms.
Job cuts are continuing to bite, while the much-discussed bonus pool is set to be significantly smaller this year.
On the exchange side, diversification into derivatives continues to take place. Singapore Exchange recently announced a deal with Nasdaq fror its new Titan platform, which should be in place by the end of 2015, all being well. The Shanghai Stock Exchange is simulating options trading, too, while trading records are being set in Asia as a whole for derivatives.
Out west, the Global Markets Exchange Group just announced that high-frequency trading (HFT) powerhouse Virtu Financial has agreed to become a liquidity provider for its swap future contract.
Deep Impacts
If this momentum continues, there could be changes in the market not seen since 2008, particularly when rules around the separation of investment and retail activities come into force, and further restrictions on proprietary trading by banks bite down. In Europe, the review of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive will start to be digested, while Asian markets continue to implement their interpretation of the G20 agreement over derivatives reform.
So will 2015 be a "good" year for the industry? It seems to very much depend on what part of the industry you belong to, and perhaps how deep your pockets are.
Speaking of things changing, this column marks my penultimate editor's letter for Sell-Side Technology, after which I will be handing back the reins to my US-based colleagues, and leaving Waters magazine for pastures new.
Thanks for reading over the past three-and-a-half years, for your e-mails and for your comments. If you'd like to stay in touch, add me on LinkedIn, follow me on Twitter or shoot me an e-mail.
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