China Will Open Up, Just Not Yet

When talking to various people for that feature, I'd heard conflicting views ─ while most openly remained optimistic that it would be in place by the end of October, early November at the latest, privately many wondered if that would actually be the case, given how close we were at the time to that point.

I'd also heard murmurs that many brokers and buy-side firms, who stand to gain the most from it, weren't happy with the way that it was being handled. Not so much that there wasn't time, in that this was announced way back in April, and the vendors and custodian banks have been on a PR blitzkrieg to woo people over to their offerings. More so that they didn't want approval to drop one day, and have to be using it the next.

It all came to a head last week, when the Asian Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (Asifma) sent a letter to the exchanges and regulators, expressing more or less that sentiment. Now it seems that, given we're at the bottom of the ninth for the supposed implementation, it won't be happening now. Late November, most are saying, but the Chinese regulators work at their own pace and won't be pressured or swayed in the same way that, perhaps, regulators from other economies can be. They're just not as collaboratively minded. Not to mention there's the small matter of widespread civil unrest in Hong Kong.

That being said, this is still a huge development for China generally, and for HKEx, which may emerge as the real winner in terms of initial public offerings and vastly increased business. Assuming, that is, people can get their acts together (according to HKEx in this FT article, there was never a formal timeframe in place, just vague notations about getting approvals).

But with most of the major issues ironed out ─ a question I posed to some sources about the settlement cycle received a couple of terse replies that it was all in hand, thank you very much ─ there's not a great deal of work remaining on the technical side, surely? I mean, come on, it's not like everyone would have left it to the last minute or anything.

The Chinese regulators work at their own pace and won't be pressured or swayed in the same way that, perhaps, regulators from other economies can be.

As a quick reminder, speaking of last-minute panicking, we have a number of webcasts, conferences and award events coming up over the next few months, in the build-up to the time of year that must not be named. If you're at any of these, or tuning in, please do come say hello.