The danger of prediction markets is precisely how useful they are
The Waters Wrap: Prediction markets may seem like a gamer’s paradise or a honey pot for those looking to corrupt betting. But they have another use in forming institutional prices. At least, that’s what Max Bowie is putting his money on.
Join me for a moment, dear reader, for a quick wander into the unknown. Let’s say there was a market where you could trade—or perhaps “bet” is more accurate—virtually anything, and in which someone did exactly that. And let’s say they made a large wad of cash as a result. Problem is, they’re in a privileged position and aren’t supposed to bet on what they know—or rather what they learned through their position. That’s what we know as—to use a technical term—insider trading.
The fact is that this
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