Fool’s Gold: Data Mining Digs Up Explosive Errors

A review of 100 major psychology studies, for instance, found that only 36 percent had statistical significance. Over half the alien planets identified by Nasa’s Kepler telescope turned out to be stars. And in preclinical cancer research, a mere six out of 53 breakthrough studies were found to be reproducible. Quantitative finance does not fare much better.

“It’s a gigantic problem—spurious results are the norm,” says Zak David, co-founder of analytics firm Mile 59, and former engineer of high