The Horse Race that Is Compliance

If you read my weekly editor's letter religiously—and why wouldn't you?—then you know I'm a horseracing enthusiast. You may remember back in May, on the day before the Kentucky Derby, I wrote a rather snarky column about how the rest of 2011 would play out as it relates to financial technology. (If you don't remember, please click here—and shame on you for not remembering.)

Well, today marks the first day of the Breeder's Cup. Since I'm not that original and I've spent far too much time this week doping out the 15 Breeder's Cup races, we'll try this again.

Mifir Delay (1–5): It would be a shocking upset if this regulation—not a directive—didn't get delayed significantly as it makes its way through the individual countries of the European Union. My money is on Estonia causing the largest delay.

Dodd–Frank Falters (15–1): One rule has already been shot down by the District of Columbia Court of Appeals. More will fall, setting off a domino effect that all but whips out all of Dodd–Frank.

MF Repeat (8–1): There will be another MF Global-type collapse before next year's Kentucky Derby. The odds will only go down if we fall into another recession.

Cloud Flash (5–1): There will be another Flash Crash that is set off as the result of hacked information that was sitting in a cloud. This will prompt cloud naysayers to proclaim, "I told you so!"

RIM Out of Biz (2–1): After embarrassing disruptions that cost many fund managers who were unable to receive email for several days, Wall Street revolts and realizes what every teenager in the nation already knows: The Apple iPhone is better than the BlackBerry. (And this is coming from an Android owner.)

Bite of Apple (20–1): Apple's iPad sales decline as a result of the loss of visionary Steve Jobs. This is one longshot everyone is hoping doesn't hit.

Outlaw High-Frequency Trading (30–1): Mifid has opened the door for curbing high-frequency trading. Now politicians in the US will seize on the opportunity to act like experts on the subject ... because no one knows algorithmic trading like a senator from North Dakota.

No Further Exchange Mergers (4–1): Following the failed bids of the London Stock Exchange to nab the Toronto Stock Exchange, and the Singapore Exchange to grab the Australian Securities Exchange, exchanges around the globe get cold feet.

No Form PF (3–1): After hedge funds managing more than $5 billion struggle to meet the Securities and Exchange Comission’s (SEC's) June 15, 2012, deadline, the regulator decides to push the Dec. 15, 2012, deadline for all other firms back into 2013.

Secretary Corzine (100–1): Following the collapse of MF Global, President Barack Obama names former MF Global CEO Jon Corzine as Tim Geithner's replacement as the next Secretary of the Treasury.