Can machine learning help predict recessions? Not really

Artificial intelligence models stumble on noisy data and lack of interpretability

What are the odds of a recession hitting the United States in 2024?

Goldman Sachs places its bet at 15%. The New York Federal Reserve suggests a gloomier likelihood of 69% using a model based on the yield curve, one of the best known indicators of recessions. A group of economists project a 50% chance of a downturn, in a survey by Wolters Kluwer. Polls of CEOs and consumers show 84% and 69%, respectively, braced for recessionary winds in the next 12–18 months.

Quants trying to make sense of

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The IMD Wrap: Will banks spend more on AI than on market data?

As spend on generative AI tools exceeds previous expectations, Max showcases one new tool harnessing AI to help risk and portfolio managers better understand data about their investments—while leaving them always in control of any resulting decisions.

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